Cenários de mudanças climáticas usando modelagem dinâmica na Bacia do Alto Taquari.

Abstract

Due to agriculture frontier advance in Centre-Western Brazil in the last 40 years, the region became a major grain and meat producer. Soil and Climate particular characteristics, associated to soil management system brought drastic environmental consequences, such as erosion process, mainly in Upper Taquari Basin (UTB). Approximately 86% of UTB is located in North of Mato Grosso do Sul, however the sediment transport effects are reflected downstream, at Pantanal Basin. This study aimed at modeling meteorological variables and simulating climate change scenarios applying dynamic modeling techniques coupled to geoprocessing tools in UTB in order to support land use planning in the region. IPCC assumptions were adopted to simulate two termopluvial scenarios until 2100 applying TerraME (Modelling Environment) tool. An optimistic scenario considers that yearly average air temperature would be increased by 1°C, while pessimistic scenario points out 3°C as average temperature elevation. Regarding to annual pluvial precipitation means, an optimistic scenario forecasts 15% of precipitation increment. Reductions of 15% in precipitation are waited in pessimistic foreseen. Isolines spatial distribution was calculated using DEM (Digital Elevation Model) based on SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission). Scenarios generate different spatial topoclimate patterns in the basin. Prevalent mean temperatures currently vary from 23.6 to 25.7°C. After 100 years in simulation, optimistic scenario shows a displacement to thermal range from 22.1 to 23.0°C. In the next 40 years, on areas along Taquari river basin, from West to East direction, temperatures will overcome current mean superior thermal limit for the region of UTB, i.e., evapotranspiration rates in riparian zone are likely to increase. This indicates a trend to reduction in stream discharges. In the pessimistic scenarios, these temperatures will be anticipated in 20 years. Scenario with 15% higher pluvial precipitation shows that north part of UTB will receive larger rainfall volumes, what should make erosion problem worse. These scenarios demonstrate spatial-temporal dynamic model potential. Among studied climate variables, air temperature is the most sensitive to express climate change effects in Upper Taquari Basin.