Previsão das emissões veiculares com a implantação gradativa de veículos híbridos e elétricos na cidade do Rio de Janeiro

Abstract

The transport sector is the main cause of local air pollutant emissions, which directly affect the well-being and health of the population. The development of innovative and environmentally friendly solutions for the road transport sector plays a key role. Given this, the main objective of this study was to predict the vehicle emissions of the city of Rio de Janeiro with the gradual deployment of electric and hybrid electric cars and buses by 2030. For this, 07 (seven) scenarios were simulated, considering the implementation of 10 % of electric and hybrid-electric buses in 2020, 15 % in 2021, 20 % in 2022, until reaching 100 % in 2030. For electric and hybrid-electric cars it was considered the implementation of 2 % in 2020 increasing progressively 3 % over 52 % by 2030. Vehicle emission data estimated by the Rio de Janeiro Metropolitan Region Vehicle Source Emissions Inventory: Base Year 2013 were used as the basis of the study. The results showed that replacing 52 % of the conventional car fleet with electric cars by 2030 could reduce 36 % of CO emissions as well as 35% and 47 % of NMHC and RCHO, respectively. Replacing 100% of the conventional bus fleet with electric buses will reduce 19% MPescap and 28 % NOx. Electric and hybrid electric vehicle technologies can contribute to reducing pollutant emission levels, helping to comply with Resolution CONAMA no. 491/18, which establishes the new Brazilian Air Quality Standards.