Elaboração de mapas de susceptibilidade ao risco na comunidade da Rocinha com utilização de modelo probabilístico e ferramenta geoestatística

Abstract

Especially during the period between December and early April, which basically covers summer in the southern hemisphere, rainy events usually trigger well-known mass movements involving slopes formed by soils and rocks. In cases where regions are subject to housing movements, the importance of studying the phenomena associated with geotechnical accidents is no longer merely formal and scientific, due to the unprecedented involvement of materials and humans. The present work investigated, in a judicious manner, the causes, consequences and mechanisms of action of such accidents over time and the particularized history of each region of the community of Rocinha, seeking to know all the constraints involved in the process, from the Its definition for its final effects. In the last analysis, this research tried to estimate, with greater reliability, as probabilities of slipping risk in several points distributed by all the slopes of that community. These estimates were based on the recording of information on geological and geotechnical accidents involving logically soil and / or rock mobilization in certain rainy periods in the background, resulting in damages at various severity scales such as human losses, Destruction According to the use of geography tools. Considerations for probabilities of point-to-point geotechnical occurrences through the concept of Bayesian updating, we proceeded to model probability surfaces throughout the area of the massif. For that, a spatial distribution of the probability values of geotechnical events was obeyed, in order to respect the regional treatment, through the establishment of spatial correlation functions that are peculiar.