Brasil e México frente aos Estados Unidos: crises bilaterais assimétricas e coalizões domésticas de política externa

Abstract

Imbalances between formally sovereign states on the scale of military, economic and technological capabilities, land and population, result in a system of asymmetrical relations which implies that officials from countries of the periphery will face relatively bigger challenges in advancing foreign policy preferences. Nevertheless, in contexts of asymmetrical bilateral relations, it is possible to see cases in which the weakest side is able to maintain divergent preferences against the strongest side. The purpose of this historical comparative research is to investigate under which conditions it was the case in contexts of divergence and bilateral crisis in the history of the relations of Brazil and Mexico in face of the United States. A central claim is that domestic politics variables must be considered as part of the explanation of the weakest side s successes, in particular, the formation of a wide, plural and heterogeneous coalition supporting divergent foreign policies. The comparison includes both cases of success and failure, a strategy that allows the identification of the presence or absence of specific conditions related to the phenomenon to be explained. By consulting existing literature on these junctures, press reports, diplomatic archives and official documents, it was possible to identify the political behavior of relevant foreign policy actors in each case and evaluate whether they support or reject the policies adopted by government officials. This research also examines two critical junctures where both Mexican and Brazilian foreign policy were conducted in line with Washington preferences. The evidences showed that, even in cases where intense cooperation between asymmetrical sides are tried, the presence of a strong coalition was also an indispensable part of the conditions that led to the success of the weakest side s foreign policy.