Capacidade preditiva dos ACCRUALS, EBITDA e do Fluxo de Caixa Operacional: Estudo empírico das empresas listadas na BM&FBOVESPA

Abstract

The general objective of this study is to analyze in which economic sectors the FCO, EBITDA and ACCRUALS have a greater ability to predict cash flow and influence the formation of share prices in publicly traded Brazilian companies. 2,550 sample data published by 425 companies from 2012 to 2017 were analyzed and separated into economic sectors (Agro and Fisheries, Food and Beverage, Commerce, Construction, Electronics, Electricity, Industrial Machinery, Mining, Non-Metallic Mining, Others , Pulp and Paper, Oil and Gas, Chemicals, Steel & Metallurgy, Software and Data, Telecommunications, Textiles, Transportation Services and Vehicles and Parts). The established sample base is original and has not undergone any adaptations. Descriptive analyzes and panel data analysis were performed to verify the existence of a relationship for the established proxies, as well as the use of a regression model adapted from the research by FINGER (1994), to test the predictability of operating cash. The results achieved for the established proxies demonstrate a high correlation and reaffirm the potential for operating cash flow. The results also demonstrated that the “trade” sector and the FCO variable have a greater significant influence on the formation of stock prices, while for the “electric energy” and “construction” sectors, they do not present any interference in the stock pricing process. We conclude that, despite the different results achieved for each economic segment and their relationship with the variables, they have a predictive capacity, but some exhibit greater information potential than the others.