Punição como violência pela ótica das liberdades substantivas: contribuições metodológicas acerca de espaços de liberdade e estatística bayesiana

Abstract

The growth of the incarcerated population around the world has been drawing the attention of scholars who study violence and punishment. In Brazil, the sharp increase in incarceration rates has been accompanied by an increase in crimes, especially violent crimes. This work aims to understand the phenomenon of mass incarceration in Brazil and worldwide, focusing on pointing causes and consequences of both: punitive selectivity and macro factors associated with the phenomenon. The work consists of scientific research on: punishment, public security, violence, crime, justice and human rights. Part of a theoretical study in the areas of sociology of punishment and social stratification, making a dialogue with political philosophy and theory of justice, with emphasis on liberal debate. The methodological proposal is divided into two strands: macrosociological, referring to the study of aggregate incarceration rates, and microsociological, directed to the study of the substantive freedoms that individuals have before and after going through the prison system. Data analysis uses statistical tools for exploratory data analysis and modeling. Several statistical models are presented for data treatment, including: generalized linear models, hierarchical models, spatial statistics models and dynamic time series models. The inference is made under the Bayesian paradigm so that scientific decision making is not based on p-value. The results show that Brazil is undergoing a process of mass incarceration, which occurs linked to its specific phase of development and inequality. The large number of people arrested affects official labor market statistics. The thesis shows that incarceration, which is aimed at specific groups of the population, has an important and little debated role in the perpetuation of inequalities.