Transmissão de preços do leite entre os principais estados brasileiros

Abstract

Dairy cattle farming is of great economic importance for Brazil, being responsible for the generation of jobs, direct and indirect throughout the chain. In addition, it is one of the fundamental foods in human nutrition due to its high nutritional value and is an important source of calcium and animal protein. Given this scenario, the objective of the present study is to investigate the process of transmission of milk prices in the spatial and vertical scope in the states of Minas Gerais, Rio Grande do Sul, Paraná, Goiás and São Paulo in the period from January 2007 to December 2018. The methodology used was the Error Correction Model (ECM), Johansen's cointegration test (1988), Autoregressive Vector Model (VAR) with emphasis on Spillover, Granger Causality test, Impulse-Response Function and asymmetric models (ARCH family). According to the results obtained for spatial analysis, the state of Minas Gerais is the largest price maker at the producer level. After ten months, the prices of Minas Gerais explain a large proportion of price variability in other states. The state of São Paulo, on the other hand, plays a predominant role in wholesale and retail prices among the federated units studied. With regard to vertical markets, it was possible to show that spot prices are the main responsible for the asymmetry in price transmission in the states of Minas Gerais, Goiás and São Paulo while in Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná, wholesale prices are the biggest transmitters.