Estimativa da necessidade de radioterapia externa no Brasil baseada em critérios epidemiológicos

Abstract

This thesis aimed to estimate the need for radiotherapy in Brazil based on local epidemiological data. The study was developed in two stages which consisted of estimating incident cases and, later, classifying the cases registered in the Hospital Cancer Registries (RHC) to integrate decision trees for the use of radiotherapy according to evidence and clinical treatment guidelines. The estimates of incident cases in 2018 were calculated based on data from Population-Based Cancer Registries (RCBP) selected according to international quality criteria and from data corrected for ill-defined and non-specific causes in the underlying cause of deaths recorded in the System of Mortality Information (SIM) from 2007 to 2016. Annual incidence/mortality ratios (I/M) were calculated for each topography, stratified by sex and age group in the selected RCBP. The I/M ratios for 2018 were estimated for Brazilian regions using multilevel Poisson models from a longitudinal approach with random effect on the RCBP. The estimated reasons were applied to the number of deaths that occurred in 2018 by type of cancer, also corrected for ill-defined and non-specific causes in the underlying cause, recorded in the SIM. The staging data distributions obtained from the RHC were combined with the relative frequencies by type of incident cancer and data from the Collaboration for Cancer Outcomes Research and Evaluation (CCORE) project decision trees for radiotherapy use. Optimal utilization rates were estimated by type of cancer and for the set of tumors, except for non-melanoma skin. Sensitivity analyzes were performed to assess the relevance of local data in estimating the need. The number of radiotherapy equipment needed to attend to cases that would benefit from treatment at some point in the course of the disease was calculated and the analysis of the offer coverage was performed. For Brazil, in 2018, 506,462 new cases of cancer were estimated, except for non-melanoma skin. Regional differences in I/M ratios and in the pattern of incident cases were identified, which may be related to socioeconomic factors. It was estimated that 53.55% of new cases in Brazil would need radiotherapy. The greatest need for radiotherapy was identified for the North: 55.32%, with an expressive weight of cervical cancer, both in terms of incidence and the number of cases in advanced stages, for which radiotherapy is considered the treatment of choice. To meet the need for radiotherapy in Brazil, 497 external radiotherapy equipment were estimated, with an estimated deficit of 114 for 2018 in the country. The greatest deficits were observed for the North and for the SUS care network. In conclusion, the use of international parameters was not adequate for the Brazilian reality. The planning of resources for cancer care in Brazil requires reliable estimates based on local needs so that inequities are not further aggravated.