A agricultura na Rodada Doha: Quão longe do livre comércio? Uma análise sob a ótica brasileira a partir do modelo GTAP

Abstract

Agriculture is one of the most protected sectors in the world and only entered effectively to the agenda of the Multilateral Trading System with the Uruguay Round. In rounds of previous multilateral negotiations, the agricultural issue had its importance marginalized, due to pressures from developed countries, which, in addition to strong protectionism to their agricultural products, through tariff and non-tariff barriers, kept granting policies of domestic subsidies on production and export of these products. The current round of multilateral negotiations in the WTO, Doha Round, has been marked by intense debate on issues relating to agricultural products, from the pillars of market access, export subsidies and domestic support. This work uses the information available in the GTAP database in its version 8.1, with 10 regions, 10 products and 5 factors, in order to analyze the possible consequences of reform under the Doha Development Agenda on Brazil, as well as a scenario of complete elimination of global barriers to agricultural trade. Access to protected markets by tariffs and export subsidies are emphasized. The conclusion is that gains for the Brazilian economy may be possible from a reduction of barriers, mainly in the sectors of meat and sugar.