Determinantes do investimento privado no Brasil no período recente: uma abordagem pós-keynesiana

Abstract

This thesis presents an empirical assessment for the determinants of private investment in Brazil from 2007 to 2017. Using a post-Keynesian theoretical framework inspired by the specification of the Kaleckian investment function, the thesis aims to test whether private investment of the non-financial companies was affected by the financialization and Minskyan financial fragility processes. Using data from publicly traded non-financial corporations in the period analyzed, segmented into distinct sectoral groups, the investment function, specified on the basis of the theory presented, was tested by two estimation methods - the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), in which a joint analysis is performed, and by the temporal analysis method through the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL), in which individual analyzes of each group are performed. The results estimated by both methods suggest that the financialization process in the firm-level, that is, which prevailing corporate management standard of companies that favors maximum short-term shareholder returns, has a negative influence on long-term fixed investment. Regarding the firm’s financial fragility the estimated coefficients point to distinct relationships with fixed investment. These results suggest that depending on the firm's level of financial fragility, increased financial commitments may relate positively or negatively to investment. That is, if there is a predominance of firms classified as Ponzi (or close to Ponzi) in a weaker financial situation, the increase in the flow of financial commitments compared to the flow of funds generated through operating activities negatively impacts investments. Similarly, in groups with a predominance of hedge or speculative firms, an increase in financial commitments to cash flow positively impacts investment.