Impacto das mudanças climáticas na fisiologia térmica de anuros: o que podemos esperar para o futuro?

Abstract

Climate change is described as any change in the climate or its properties due to natural processes or caused by human action. The main cause for these changes is the increase in greenhouse gas emissions since the Industrial Revolution, which could lead to a potential increase of more than 1.5°C in the 21st century. Therefore, ecological and physiological systems of several species may suffer disturbances, causing a great biodiversity loss. Amphibians, as ectothermic organisms, represent the most threatened group of vertebrates to climate change due to their close relationship with environmental conditions. Climate change can affect different aspects, such as their behavior, distribution and physiological and immunological responses. In the present study, we sought to investigate how climate change affects anurans regarding their distribution and thermal physiology. Therefore, the first chapter presents a narrative review that explores the impact of climate change on the thermal physiology of anurans around the world. In the second chapter, we investigate the impact of climate change on an assemblage of anurans that inhabit a remnant of the Atlantic Forest in the state of Alagoas, investigating areas thermally suitable for its occurrence through correlative Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) in different scenarios. Finally, in the third chapter we use a mixed ENM approach, considering macro and microclimatic aspects, as well as physiological traits to determine thermally suitable areas. This study reinforces the vulnerability of anurans to the possible impacts of climate change in future scenari