A adoção da política de tarifa zero nos municípios brasileiros

Abstract

Why do some Brazilian municipalities adopt the fare-free public transport policy? Municipal wealth is commonly identified in the literature as a factor that can explain the adoption of this policy. However, wealth alone is not sufficient to answer the question posed. Municipalities from different regions show distinct averages for economic indicators, suggesting that those considered poorer are also capable of implementing the policy. To address the research question, I use logistic regression models to test the prevailing hypothesis, according to which municipal wealth (GDP per capita) is the variable that best explains the adoption of the policy. I add and test other variables identified in the literature. This variable selection procedure is conducted through a scope review, a type of systematic review that enables a better framing of different findings or the identification of gaps in the existing literature. The results show that fiscal revenue linked to the urbanization rate and the Gini index are the factors that best explain the likelihood of municipalities adopting the policy. Specifically, municipalities with high extraction capacity and an urbanization rate of up to 80% are more likely to adopt it. Regarding inequality, municipalities with high extraction capacity and a Gini index between 0.3 and 0.5 are more inclined to adopt the policy. Another relevant variable is that of incumbency, with a negative correlation of -44.71%, indicating a decrease in the likelihood of policy adoption when the mayor is in their second term. Alongside these findings, the maps showing the adoption of the zero-fare policy by year and federative unit suggest the existence of areas where the policy spreads, with the exception of the state of Rio de Janeiro. These findings present a new contribution to the literature, which previously either overestimated the effect of GDP or overlooked the relevance of these four variables. In this sense, municipalities governed by mayors in their first term, less urbanized, with low inequality and high extraction capacity are the most likely to adopt the fare-free public transport policy. Thus, this research contributes to the debates on municipal state capacities and emphasizes the centrality of extraction capacity in the provision of public utility goods, also suggesting that the diffusion of public policies occurs internally within the federative and municipal level.