Crédito e inclusão produtiva: Uma análise da experiência brasileira com o programa nacional de microcrédito produtivo orientado

Abstract

The present research evaluates microcredit as a viable alternative for productive inclusion, allowing entrepreneurs to put their ideas into practice or expand their production by accessing the necessary resources for investment. The lack of financial capacity to invest in a business—whether in raw materials, physical capital, or technology—represents a significant challenge for lower-income groups or those in socially vulnerable situations. However, within these groups, there is evidence of creative entrepreneurial initiatives focused on subsistence, even in the face of difficulties. Nevertheless, such initiatives are often driven solely by the need for survival and are characterized by low educational levels, a lack of business management guidance, and inaccessibility to financial resources that could boost their productive activities. Therefore, the objective of this research was to evaluate how microcredit impacts these businesses, contributing to investment in these segments of society and fostering productive inclusion. The methodology adopted included a literature review on experiences with microcredit programs and an analysis using multinomial logistic regression, focusing on the conditions of microcredit contracts, the size of the beneficiary businesses, and the impact of these factors on default rates. As a result, it was concluded that business size significantly impacts default rates and that contractual conditions are more burdensome for smaller businesses due to higher interest rates. Although microenterprises receive more credit, small businesses benefit the most from contracts with better conditions, particularly regarding interest rates, which, in some periods, showed a difference of up to twenty percentage points per year compared to other categories within the Simples Nacional tax regime. It is a fact that interest rates serve as a risk measure; however, excessively high rates ultimately make economic activities unfeasible. When businesses invest the borrowed funds in productive activities, the financial return is often insufficient to cover loan payments, leading to default. Ideally, the amount granted should enable businesses—at least in favorable scenarios—to meet their obligations, repay the loan installments, and still generate profit for reinvestment and growth. Thus, it becomes evident that microcredit can serve as an alternative for productive inclusion, but with reservations, as contractual conditions and technical support for entrepreneurs are decisive factors for the success or failure of a business.