Da aliança à ruptura: relações intergovernamentais e o impeachment de governadores no Brasil

Abstract

Why do impeachment processes occur, and can they have different outcomes, even in similar scenarios that may seem favorable to the heads of government? Unlike other academic studies, this dissertation analyzes sub-national impeachment processes with different outcomes in order to answer this question. I study three cases, in Brazilian states of Amazonas, Santa Catarina and Rio de Janeiro. Despite a very favorable political configuration for the governors of these states, only a year and a few months after the start of their terms, all three faced impeachment proceedings simultaneously triggered by their respective Legislative Assemblies during the pandemic. In Amazonas, the case was dismissed without difficulty. In Santa Catarina, two impeachment processes were underway, with the governor acquitted only after the end of the process in the Special Court formed to decide on the cases. Finally, in Rio de Janeiro, the impeachment was carried out. To investigate this issue, I conducted a controlled case study to test whether the explanatory variables frequently pointed out in the literature were able to explain the different outcomes. The data was obtained through in-depth interviews, with state deputies who held key positions in the processes and former governors, as well as document analysis. The results show that the current interpretations in political science do not explain the variations observed in the states. In particular, the theoretical models fail to justify why governors face such different results under apparently similar conditions. However, the results show the emergence of a new explanatory factor: intergovernmental relations. Studying all three cases showed that breaking with the federal government led to the fall of one of the governors, while some political distancing allowed for a reversal at the end of the procedures, and full alignment ensured early dismissal. To test this new factor, I used process tracing methodology in the case study of the impeachment of the governor of Rio de Janeiro. The results show that the state government's rupture with the federal government was the initial cause and validate the intergovernmental relationship factor as a determinant of the impeachment outcome.