Da disputa das armas à disputa de competência: estudo comparado sobre a integridade dos processos eleitorais moçambicanos na eleição autárquica (2013-2023) e geral (2014 – 2024)

Abstract

This study investigated the factors that influence the integrity of electoral processes in Mozambique, based on the 2013-2023 local and 2014-2024 general elections. The comparative study stemmed from the need to capture the determinants of the victory of some opposition parties in some municipalities, a fact that is not observed in the general election. The objective was to understand the extent to which fraud and other forms of electoral manipulation affect electoral integrity. To achieve the defined objectives, a multi-method approach was used, consisting of a combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches. Thus, a questionnaire was administered to seven civil society organizations, three political parties that, at the time of the events, were represented in the Mozambican legislative assembly and local government, two organizations that administer electoral processes, and fifteen voters who had participated in at least one of the elections as polling station staff. Data were collected over an eight-month period. After defining a series of variables, the data were analyzed and interpreted through interviews, graphs, tables, maps, legislation, documents, and rulings. The results indicate that, on the one hand, electoral fraud and violence are the main factors affecting the integrity of electoral processes in Mozambique. On the other hand, the ruling political party's control of the institutions that administer electoral processes, at various levels, facilitates the manipulation of electoral results. Thus, it is concluded that the main focus for preserving the integrity of electoral processes in Mozambique is the professionalization of the bodies that administer elections. Therefore, it is suggested that political parties, civil society organizations, national and international election observatories, and the government, regardless of the type of electoral management model adopted, should implement profound reforms to the electoral law and other supplementary legislation that enable the commissions responsible for administering elections to operate in exclusive respect of the law and the will of the electorate.