Modelo de previsão de demanda de médicos para internação pelo SUS: estudo de caso para o Estado do Rio de Janeiro

Abstract

The text presents and discuss forecast model of physician s demand attendance of patients admitted on the SUS, with a study of case for the State of Rio de Janeiro. The model is based on the data of Hospital Information System of SUS (SIH/SUS) and on the foresight alterations of size and composition of the population, according to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). It describes the trajectory and the motivation that had taken to the model set up, starting from the idea of a better utilization of the enormous potential of the Brazilian databases for the planning and management of the Health Human Resources (HHR). The text also brings some commentaries on concepts of the Information Technology, that are of interest for better understanding of databases, including the use of standards. The results of the model s application for the period of 2002 the 2022, for the State of Rio de Janeiro, are presented and discussed. Several data sources were studied previously the model s set up. Suggestions of research with objective to improve the integration among the studied databases are presented, as well as the quarrel of the construction and use of indicators and a proposal of further research on the support to the decision in the HHR field.