Simulação de cenários para análise de intervenções em hipertensão arterial: uma aplicação de modelos baseados em agentes.

Abstract

The chronic non-communicable diseases (NCD), specifically the CVD are among the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in the world. It was evidenced that a CVD risk factors more common and modifiable is hypertension, which is the subject of prevention interventions. The traditional epidemiological studies on the risk factors of SAH are indispensable for planning and implementation of interventions. Even so, the results obtained so far still offer opportunities for improvement. The simulation has been used in health, but the analysis of scenarios of population health interventions still has gaps. In this study, in your first part, a narrative review 85 studies published between 2004 and 2016 simulation methods used to evaluate the effect of interventions on NCD and their risk factors. The articles reviewed addressed interventions in smoking, cardiovascular disease (CVD), obesity, diabetes (DI), diet, physical activity, cancer (CA), use of alcohol and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The studies were analyzed in relation to simulation methods used and the quality of the description. In the second part of this study, 4 scenarios were simulated for analysis of the effect of interventions to reduce body mass index (BMI) in average incidence of hypertension in a virtual cohort, applying agent based model. The curves of the average incidence of hypertension from different scenarios showed consistent differences. The developed model provided a basic framework for the analysis of scenarios of intervention in hypertension.