A influência da descoberta do pré-sal na economia fluminense

Abstract

Just as the oil sector is important to the economy of Rio de Janeiro State, the State plays an important role in the national oil sector. The Government Participation Taxes, which includes the Royalties and the Special Participation Tax, are the second largest inflow taxes for the state (12% of total), second only to the ICMS (Circulation of Goods and Services Tax, like as VAT) with 51% of participation. From the total ICMS, 11% are from the petroleum sector, totaling 18% for all inflow taxes of state Government. This contribution could be higher if there was no exemption from charging ICMS on export, between states, of oil and its derivatives. In this case, the participation of the oil sector would jump to 40% of ICMS. In absolute numbers the revenues could be R$ 10 billion, double the current inflow taxes from the Government Participation Taxes. On the other hand, today (2010), 82% of oil production and 81% of brazilian proved reserves are in off-shore of Rio de Janeiro State. With the discovery of Pre-Salt, the national oil production and proved reserves could double in coming years, while the Rio de Janeiro's share in production and proved reserves will exceed 95%. Only the payment of Government Participation Taxes to the Federal, State and Municipal Governments would exceed of R$ 4 trillion. This is the greatest opportunity for growth, development and attracts investments that the state of Rio de Janeiro or any other Brazilian state has had throughout Brazilian history. Over the next four years more than US$ 212 billion will be invested by the oil industry in Brazil and most of these investments should be realized in the Rio de Janeiro, since most of these investments will be in off-shore Rio de Janeiro's (60% of total area) of the area marked as Pre-Salt Area by the Federal Government. There will be several opportunities for the Rio de Janeiro state to improve the life quality of citizens and the available infrastructure. But as every opportunity is followed by threats, the large amounts of money involved have attracted the attention of governments and parliamentarians from other states and the Federal Government too, like as the change of the Oil s Regulatory Framework, but also open a new opportunity for change in the ICMS exception oil's criteria. In the worst scenario the state of Rio de Janeiro and its municipalities will lose more than 97% of the Royalties and Participation Special Tax. However, the opportunities are greater than the threats. Resources that may come from the ICMS, investments of operators and service companies and the high number of jobs that can be generated often outweigh the losses in Royalties and Participation Special Tax. Care must be taken by the Rio de Janeiro State and its municipalities to not miss these opportunities for growth and economic and social development, paying attention to the timing of actions.