Impacto das exportações de produtos manufaturados da China nas vendas externas dos países latinos -americanos:1995-2005

Abstract

The objective in this investigation consists in verify if the growth of the Chinese manufactured goods negatively affected the performance from the exports of this products from the Latin America countries, in the period 1995-2005. The Chinese exports are considerate in set with the ones of Hong Kong, since this country is considered a center of re-exportation from China. For such, was esteem a gravity equation augmented to the exportations from the Latin America countries destined to other markets, including as explicative variable the exportations from China to these destinies. The result obtained with the application of instrumental variables in two stage showed that an increase of 1% on the Chinese exports to these markets reduces the external sales from the Latin America countries in 0,3%. However, since the instruments available no change over time, it was not possible to use the method of fixed effect that avoid the bias occurred from the omission of variables, that can influence the trade volume. Thus, the result was not conclusive.