Avaliação dos impactos econômicos da expansão da produção de petróleo no Brasil: uma abordagem com um modelo CGE

Abstract

This work evaluates the economic impact of the investment plan of Petrobras between 2009 and 2013. The main instrument for this analysis is the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model developed in Tourinho, Alves and Silva (2008) for the analysis of the impacts of a tax reform in Brazil. That model was implemented using the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS), and uses 2003 as a base year. For our purposes, specified above, it was necessary to update the base year 2008. However, since the complete database necessary to calibrate the model for that year was not available at the beginning of this research, this was done by computing a synthetic economic equilibrium for that year. The solution of the model mimics the macroeconomic data which is available that year. In this process of synthetic calibration some parameters and several exogenous variables were adjusted. Following that, the comparative statics methodology was used to evaluate the economic impacts of the business plan, comparing the equilibrium values of the variables of the model that reflect the economic equilibrium for the period 2009 to 2013, with and without the implementation of the business plan. The results obtained confirm the large potential economic impact of the investment plan. There is a significant increase in the rate of growth of aggregate demand, as well as a large impact in several sectors of the economy, mainly those of production of capital goods and construction. However, the study indicated that the financing of the plan is very challenging, from a macroeconomic point of view, and that special attention must be given to the fiscal and the balance of payments equilibrium.