Contribuição na avaliação dos pontos negros para homicídios dolosos no estado do Rio de Janeiro

Abstract

Public security in the state of Rio de Janeiro is in a state of public calamity, which led Fthe Brazilian government to initiate a Federal intervention. The Public Security Institute of the State of Rio de Janeiro (ISP-RJ) provides official statistics on crimes in AISP - Integrated Areas of Public Security. The objective is to apply a methodology through an algorithm that identifies outliers in the monthly time series in order to interact the information of intentional homicides in the AISP / RJ from 2003 to 2018. The method was based on the FoI index (Fuzzy Outlier Index) suggested in the article " The Fuzzy Index for Detecting Spatiotemporal Outliers "that applies the principle of extension. The tool was developed in spreadsheet with the use of mathematical, statistical and logical functions in the viability of the iterative process to optimize an objective function and their use is made possible by the entry of the time series to identifying outliers by the weighted objective function, points out discrepant values as a function of variability of pertinence in subsequent times, when taking into account the occurrence of the event in temporal neighborhoods. The application was treated using the standardized information in units of the standard deviation of the intentional homicide for AISP 9 (West and part of North); AISP 18 (Cidade de Deus and Jacarepaguá); AISP 16 (North zone - Saracuruna Branch of Supervia) and AISP 3 (Catete, Cosme Velho, Flamengo, Glória and Laranjeiras). This method was able to recognize the pattern of monthly crime according to the "AISPs" clouds, which contributes to facilitate the planning of public safety policies. Replicating this proposal to the other AISPs will help identify other black months in conflict areas, the mission of the Public Security Institute to produce and disseminate information.