O impacto das despesas governamentais no IDH, desemprego e dívida pública no Brasil

Abstract

Understanding that the State acts as an intervener in the economy to optimize its operation and that public spending causes changes in the economic environment, it is necessary to study such effects. The general objective of this study is to evaluate the relationship between the public expenditures by function and the behavior of the Human Development Index, the Unemployment Rate and the Federal Public Debt. This study is an applied research, with bibliographic, documentary and quantitative approaches. The relationship between functions and indicators was measured by correlation and linear regression. Statistical inferences were also made for the regression coefficients obtained with a 95% confidence level. The cointegration of such data was also tested in order to determine its causality. The data were collected in SIGA Brasil, on the page of the development program of the united nations, in the vestibule of the institute of applied economic research and in the site of the National Treasure. The expenses by function were analyzed, verifying which which ones have grown in the last years, then the correlation of them with the HDI, the Rate of Unemployment and the Federal Public Debt was evaluated. Subsequently, the expenses by functions were submitted to linear regression, noting the presence of effect of certain functions on specific indicators. The Health and Transport Functions present statistical influence in the HDI with elasticities of 0.16% and -0.02%, respectively, without the existence of cointegration. For the Unemployment Rate, the Social Assistance, Judiciary and Health functions showed statistical influence, with respective elasticities of -0.29%, -0.32% and -0.15%, also presenting cointegration. In the case of the Federal Public Debt, the functions that indicated statistical influence were: Social Security, Social Assistance and National Defense, where each presented elasticity of 0.09%, 0.16% and 0.13%, respectively. In this case, the cointegration of the data was also identified. It was found that to relate the Functions of the expenses with certain indexes, in some cases, it constitutes a good model, being necessary statistical tests to determine its validity. Not all Functions are shown to be impacting in all the indicators, being necessary to carry out statistical tests to determine the most relevant ones. Also, it was clear that the decision to direct more or less resources impacts on issues that are relevant to society.