Relevância informacional dos lucros contábeis das companhias abertas brasileiras na previsão do futuro crescimento do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB)

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the informational relevance of accounting profits of companies opened in anticipation of future growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Brazil. The methodology was developed based on the study of Konchitchki and Patatoukas (2014), whose main objective was to verify through models ordinary least squares regressions the informational relevance of net income in predicting future GDP growth of listed companies in the United States of America (USA). The sample of this study consists of 150 publicly held companies with active registration in Brazilian Securities Commission (CVM) and who met the sample selection criteria, the study period comprises the second quarter of 2002 to the fourth quarter of 2014. Initially, it was held a GDP behavior analysis as a whole and by sector of activities over the years studied. Then an analysis of profit and its relationship to the overall GDP and GDP per sectors of activity. Finally, we adopted the linear regression model A adopted by Konchitchki and Patatoukas (2014). The results indicated that, based on the methodology used and the analyzed companies, the accounting profit has no predictive power for future growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Brazil.