Razão de chance e incidência de lesões em jovens atletas de futebol

Abstract

Objectives: To determine the odds ratio and incidence of injuries in young soccer athletes. Materials and Methods: The study was performed through the access to databases of a football club in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Data from the sub 17 and sub 20 categories were analyzed for lesion characteristics throughout the year 2016. Data were analyzed in the Python 2.7 program and program R version 3.4.2. Results: The incidence ratio was 0.68, the repeated incidence ratio was 1.48, the incidence rate was 55.26 and the standard error was 7.08. In sub 17, there were 62 cases among 54 athletes total, in which 39 had injuries, with 1,148 cases occurring per athlete, representing 114.81% of cases and 72.22% of injured. In sub 20, there were 61 cases among 53 athletes total, in which 42 had injuries, occurring in 1,151 cases per athlete, representing 115.09% of cases and 79.25% of injured. In the present study, the highest observed occurrence was for the moderate degree. The incidence of injuries per day of the week throughout the year for the sub 17 and sub 20 categories, with Wednesday being the day of occurrence and Friday the day of release. The highest incidence of injuries per month during the year was in the months of May and October and of release in March and October. The main lesion found was the ankle sprain, followed by myalgia of hip adductors. There was a prominent forearm injury to defenders and attackers. Most injuries for all positions were unilateral. The right side of the body had a greater number of foot injuries, followed by injuries to the forearm, just the opposite of the left side, where the greatest number of injuries occurred in the forearm and then in the foot. The estimates of odds ratio were developed through Logit models, which had by dependent variable: I) Category; II) Position, III) Injury, IV) Month of Injury, IVA) Month 1st Semester, and IVB) Month 2nd Semester. The III presented practical applicability, OR = 0.02, with Segment as the risk factor, OR = 2.14. The IV had a better result, OR = 18.17, with Position (OR = 0.67) and Injury (OR = 0.96) as protection factors. The IVA model revealed a constant probability (OR = 72.81), therefore without identification of protection or risk factors. Finally, in the IVB model, the approach proved to be the most stable, achieving OR = 8516.34, being Injury (OR = 0.75) and Category (OR = 0.14) protection factors, whereas Segment (OR = 90) was characterized as a risk factor. Conclusion: With the results of the present study, it can be concluded from the epidemiological study that young athletes of the sub 17 and sub 20 categories tend to have moderate injuries, with the main incidence in the ankle and myalgia in the thigh. The study developed six Logit models of odds ratio, having as variables: distance, position, injury, side, segment, performed with young athletes of the sub 17 and sub 20 categories of field soccer. With the application of these models, it can be concluded that: when the dependent variables were the dichotomization of the positions in play, the types of lesions present a risk of injury, which means that the lesions that occurred in the positions have a real chance of reproducing. When the dichotomization of the months of the second semester was the dependent variable, it was evidenced that the segments are risk factors, understanding that the injuries occurred in the second half have a real chance of occurring. As seen, the chances of lesions in the segments have a greater risk of occurring, especially articular and in the month of October.