Tendências Espaciais e Temporais da Epidemia da AIDS em maiores de 50 Anos no Município de Niterói - RJ

Abstract

The acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) is a public health problem that has reached large proportions. In the absence of an effective vaccine or treatment for the disease, the efforts have to be focused on prevention. Health policies adopted by the Brazilian government resulted in stabilization of the disease in the country on younger age groups, although this trend hasn`t been happening in other age groups. Check the incidence of AIDS in the elderly, in Niterói, RJ, according to sex, age, period and birth cohort of 1982-2011, in addition to analyzing the spatial dynamics of the AIDS epidemic in the elderly (individuals aged 60 or more) in the state of Rio de Janeiro in the period 1997-2011, are the goals of this study. Population data by age, sex and group were obtained from population censuses, population count (1996), inter-census projections and data from the Information System for Notifiable Diseases, Mortality and Control Laboratory Tests. The incidence rates per 100,000 were calculated for geographical units by counting the number of new AIDS cases in individuals aged 60 years or older and size of the local population in the same age group. To evaluate the spatial dependence of the global rate, Moran index was calculated. Moran Maps were used to show the spatial correlation schemes potentially different in different sub-regions. Probability distributions and empirical Bayesian analysis were also used. There were 575 cases of AIDS among residents of Niteroi with ≥ 50 years of age. Increasing trend of incidence rates over time were found in both sexes. Also, the study of the spatial dynamics of the incidence of the syndrome(AIDS) in the elderly, in Rio de Janeiro, in the period 1997-2011 immunodeficiency syndrome rates between men and women, remained buoyant throughout the period. In this study, it wasn`t possible to detect overall significant correlation using the global Moran index. On the southeast coast of the state, where there are the major metropolitan areas (Rio de Janeiro and Niterói), we observe groups of cities with rates up to 20 cases per 100 000 population. This concentration becomes more pronounced in subsequent periods when it seems gradual spread of the epidemic occur south coast to the north of Rio de Janeiro.